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  • Stuck In The Mud.

    In This Issue.

    * Eurozone sees strong data from Germany.

    * Aussie employment rises along with the A$.

    * RBNZ leaves rates unchanged and sounds upbeat.

    * Gold gets whacked again.

    ...
  • Counting Flowers On The Wall...

    In This Issue..

    * A non-movement day in currencies...
    * Euro gets hit again by Greek debt levels...
    * Asia is bellwether for global growth...
    * Gold rallies!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I hear that the "rains" are coming today, and will be around until next Tuesday! We'll be water logged, eh? I want to thank everyone who sent along the 'welcome back' notes yesterday. I need to make something clear... I'm not at the office... Not yet, they won't let me... So, I'm writing from home, and I have to pat myself on the back because I didn't complain one iota about writing from home yesterday! HA!

    Talk about counting flowers on the wall, playing solitaire till dawn with a deck of 51, and all those other things that fall under the category of being bored, and dull... That was the day in currencies yesterday......
  • Big Ben Talks Rate Hikes...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a very tight range...
    * Aussie job creation soars!
    * Oil pushes loonies higher...
    * The Mogambo Guru returns!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... It's a BIG night at the Butler house... Not really at our house, but more the Fabulous Fox! My little buddy Alex, and the jazz band he plays guitar for, will be performing tonight at the Fabulous Fox, which for those of you not familiar with the Fox, it's a beautiful refurbished theater here in St. Louis... Alex also has a big guitar solo, so this should be good!

    OK... Well, the 'experts' that thought the Trade Deficit was going to narrow in December got their lunch handed to them yesterday, when not only did the Trade Deficit NOT narrow, but widened from $35 Billion to $40 Billion! Now that stinks! And... I'll tell you right now, it will deduct from the 5.7% GDP figure that was printed a couple of weeks ago. Yes, this increase in the Trade Deficit will probably reduce the GDP figure to at least 5%...

    ...
  • It’s A Jobs Jamboree Friday for 12/04/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * Commodity Currencies rebound...
    * Gold sees profit taking...
    * Canary in a coal mine...
    * It's Moving Day!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's Moving Day for us here in the EverBank St. Louis office, as we will pick up our belongings and walk next door, to a larger, space, with some incredible views! We moved into this space 5 years ago, and we've been busting at the seams, with the threads holding on to dear life, for over a year now... So, this move is welcomed. Like I said the other day, in 1999, I sat in an office that we rented from the kind folks at Paylinx, and that was the beginning... From that tiny office to this! WOW!

    ...
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

    In This Issue..

    * Comments spook currency traders...
    * A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
    * Geithner as the "joker"?
    * China changes statement about the renminbi...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

    That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

    So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......
  • Silence Is Golden...

    In This Issue..

    * A HUGE dollar sell off overnight...
    * BLS admits the Birth/Death model was wrong...
    * The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall...
    * Kiwi is best performer overnight...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Spectacular weekend, weather wise, here in the Midwest... And Indian Summer, is what my dad would have called it. The news from the Sports teams wasn't so spectacular, but we had the weather going for us!

    Welcome to Monday's edition of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts... I'll start off today with a note about the currencies, then do a recap of Friday, and then a look ahead to the rest of the week... So... Strap yourself in, and make sure to keep your arms and legs inside at all times during the ride!...
  • China Grows at +8.9%!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally is reversed overnight!
    * Pay Czar dreams...
    * Brazil may reverse capital inflow tax...
    * An Asian Union?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining outside, so... It must be a Thursday! Amazing how many Thursdays have seen rain this fall! The ground isn't the only thing that's getting watered down this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the euro traded well past 1.50 yesterday afternoon, and drug all the other non-dollar currencies higher as the day went on. But overnight, all that giddiness with seeing the euro over 1.50 for the first time since August of 2008 (and then it was on the way down, instead of this time on the way up!), has been watered down......
  • Catching Up With Richard Duncan...

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies give back very little...
    * The Unemployed are remaining unemployed...
    * FOMC puts away the board games today...
    * China invokes a 'Public Morals' defense...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the Fed Head put away the board games today, and make an announcement this afternoon... Yawn... Norway's Norges Bank will also make an announcement with theirs coming this morning. I still contend that the Norges Bank will keep rates unchanged and give a hint as to when their rate hike cycle will begin. If that were to happen as I think, then it would be very bullish for the krone......
  • More Strong Data Sinks The Dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies near 1-year levels...
    * Canadian loonies are best performer!
    * Dangling a carrot...
    * Oil trades above $72...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Why Tub Thumpin'? Why not? Besides, the non-dollar currencies are darn near where they were a year ago, having a good chunk of the ground they lost during the Financial Meltdown last fall and winter... Not that I'm a cheerleader, but more of a 'this is what I believed would happen, and glad to see a plan come together' kind of guy!

    And since I, unlike throngs of people that like to point out errors, put my beliefs in writing every day... Right out there / here, in the open, for anyone to take pot shots at... But, I learned long ago that there will always be those that disagree, and not to let it upset or change the things I believe...

    ...
  • A Rout On The Dollar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally strong!
    * China is upset with printing of dollars...
    * The UN talks of a new currency...
    * Unemployment rate rises to 9.7%

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long Holiday Weekend, that was quite good for yours truly! A great tailgate, a great Missouri Tigers victory, 3 of 4 for the Cardinals, a great end of summer bar-b-que at the Butler House, and a day to recharge the batteries... Really couldn't ask for much more... Yes, the weather could have cooperated a bit better, but, hey, that's nitpicking!

    Well... Last night I was checking the markets to see what was going on, since I had walked away from the desk on Friday afternoon... And much to my surprise, the currencies, led by the euro, seemed to be breaking out of their recent trading ranges. The euro was trading 1.4335, when I checked then... And when I turned on the currency screens here at the office this morning, the euro has stretched that move to the 1.4480 level! WOW! Looks to me as though the deficits that the dollar drags around are not looking to sharp to investors... But then, what took them so long to dump that fashion faux pas? Ahhh, grasshopper... As I've said many times before... The markets will do what they are supposed to do... Just not when... Which means, sometimes you have to wait... And wait... And think that they guy ranting each day in the Pfennig is barking up the wrong tree!...
  • Yet Another Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * G-20 to shun an exit from stimulus?
    * Gold and Silver and Oil... A new trend?
    * Loonies follow the commodities higher...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well... Once again, my day didn't turn out exactly as planned, but as they say... A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day and then you plug in the place... It could be work... It could be cutting the grass... Etc..

    OK... I heard a great song on the radio this morning on my way to work... And I said to myself... Chuck, now that's a great song to start a day with, that everyone should hear each day! It's a song from the 60's (of course!), by the Rascals, called... It's a Beautiful Morning... Here's the first verse, and if you know the song, I'm sure you'll want to sing along, but if not... Look it up, I'm sure, you'll agree that it's a great way to start a day!

    ...
  • A Big Jobs Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Low yielding currencies get sold...
    * High yielding currencies remain solid...
    * Further info on the inflation indexed bonds...
    * Stealth QE...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A very nice, but hot weekend here... But hey! It's August, it's supposed to be hot! Friday was an awful day for most of the currencies, and there was a HUGE surprise in the Jobs Jamboree (according to the BLS, of course!)... And, at the end of updates, I've got a story for you about stealth QE, you'll not want to miss a minute of that! So... Let's go!

    Well, Friday's Jobs Jamboree was quite interesting to say the least... I had already told you about the forecasts for a HUGE drop in job losses for July from 467,000 to 325,000... But the number, according to the BLS, was 247,000!!!!!!! Way to Go Corporate America! Geez Louise, I wish it were that full of seashells and balloons! This smells of yesterday's fish folks... OK, let me get this straight... The forecast was for 325,000 job losses, and an unemployment rate of 9.6% (up from 9.5% in June)... And the jobs lost were 247,000, a difference of 78,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%... So, the BLS is telling me, and you, that 78,000 jobs not being lost, was equal to .2% (9.6 to 9.4)? Come on! I didn't just fall off the turnip truck!...
  • A Lost Decade?

    In This Issue..

    * An Up and Down day for currencies...
    * Jobs Jamboree moves to Thursday today...
    * China to buy more Gold!
    * Sweden cuts rates!

    Good day... And a Thankful Thursday to you! I'm reminded that we all need to be thankful for the patriots that led this country to victory and thus our freedom. The freedom for me to write a letter like this, each day, that allows me to say what I want to say (well, with the governor of the legal beagles of course!). And since this weekend we will celebrate our Independence, I thought this to be a good time to have a Thankful Thursday!

    Patriots... You know, the ending story for those 56 Patriots that signed the Declaration of Independence is not a happy story... So, when we learn of their collective fates, we realize that freedom does not come free......
  • A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Goldman says to buy euros!
    * Oil fuels Commodity Currencies!
    * RBNZ to meet tonight...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday was 'Turn Around Tuesday'! Add to that, the fact that there were a number of reasons for the euro to lead the charge for currencies VS the dollar yesterday. And... A word from one of the economists that I keep on my list of 'to read'... So, let's get to the tape from Turn Around Tuesday!

    I heard yesterday someone say 'well, we sure turned around today in the currencies'... And I thought, Shoot Rudy, why not name it Turn Around Tuesday? Then I went back to the history page on my trusty Bloomberg, and saw that on 4 of the last 5 Tuesdays, the currencies did in fact 'turn around' their performances from the day before! Not that this is something we can hand our hats on, and make trades accordingly on Monday nights / Tuesday mornings... But, it's an interesting fact nonetheless!...
  • It's All About The Stress Tests...

    In This Issue..

    * Tired of reacting to rumors!
    * Aussie dollar continues to rally...
    * More on China...
    * Bank of England keeps rates unchanged...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! We're stuck in a rainy pattern here in St. Louis, I just have to hope the rain stops long enough to get the day game at Busch in today!

    Well... The Stress Tests get their public showing today... The rumors continue to be something strange... Strange in that, one it's Bank of America (BOA) needing to raise $10 Billion, the next day it's $35 Billion, and then later in the same day, BOA doesn't need to raise any capital! Talk about wild swings of emotion! WOW!...