Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Big Ben Talks Rate Hikes...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a very tight range...
    * Aussie job creation soars!
    * Oil pushes loonies higher...
    * The Mogambo Guru returns!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... It's a BIG night at the Butler house... Not really at our house, but more the Fabulous Fox! My little buddy Alex, and the jazz band he plays guitar for, will be performing tonight at the Fabulous Fox, which for those of you not familiar with the Fox, it's a beautiful refurbished theater here in St. Louis... Alex also has a big guitar solo, so this should be good!

    OK... Well, the 'experts' that thought the Trade Deficit was going to narrow in December got their lunch handed to them yesterday, when not only did the Trade Deficit NOT narrow, but widened from $35 Billion to $40 Billion! Now that stinks! And... I'll tell you right now, it will deduct from the 5.7% GDP figure that was printed a couple of weeks ago. Yes, this increase in the Trade Deficit will probably reduce the GDP figure to at least 5%...

    ...
  • Aussie Jobs Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * A back-n-forth day in currencies...
    * Aussies create 3X more jobs than forecast!
    * Euro to remain alternative reserve currency...
    * Brazilian Sov. Wealth Fund achieves weaker real...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! The daytime temperature reached 49 yesterday... As our little Christine would say... 'get the sharts out!' HAHAHA!

    Today, we're chock-full-o-stuff to look for, starting with a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and going through the morning here in the U.S. there'll be more 'stuff' for us to look for, like Retail Sales, and since it's a Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also print. The Fed's Beige Book printed yesterday afternoon, and we've got that to discuss this morning too... So, let's get this Tub Thumpin' Thursday going, eh?

    Front and Center this morning... The Australian Jobs report printed yesterday afternoon, and it looks like we'll be able to put another mark in the "pro" column for an Aussie rate hike in Feb... Here's the skinny... Australian employment soared for a 4th straight month, as jobs created were 3 times more than economists estimated! The total jobs created was 35,200, and the jobless rate fell to 5.5% (from 5.6%)...

    ...
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

    In This Issue..

    * Comments spook currency traders...
    * A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
    * Geithner as the "joker"?
    * China changes statement about the renminbi...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

    That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

    So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......
  • Rates To Remain Near Zero...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar reverses sell-off...
    * BOE & ECB meet today...
    * New Zealand is not Australia...
    * Funny accounting...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because it's a Thursday and it's not raining! Yay for us! Well... Not only was I wrong, but the Bloomberg Economic Calendar was wrong too... The FOMC was not a 2-day meeting after all! Just one day, so no time to pull out the board games and cards...

    I nailed that FOMC statement yesterday... WOW! You might begin to think that I have some inside info on the Fed Heads, the way I've been able to basically call every move they've made since the beginning of this whole meltdown in August of 2007! But that's not important here... The important thing is that the Fed said that economic growth is not enough to hike rates, and therefore they will keep interest rates at near zero for an 'extended period'...

    ...
  • A Big Jobs Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Low yielding currencies get sold...
    * High yielding currencies remain solid...
    * Further info on the inflation indexed bonds...
    * Stealth QE...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A very nice, but hot weekend here... But hey! It's August, it's supposed to be hot! Friday was an awful day for most of the currencies, and there was a HUGE surprise in the Jobs Jamboree (according to the BLS, of course!)... And, at the end of updates, I've got a story for you about stealth QE, you'll not want to miss a minute of that! So... Let's go!

    Well, Friday's Jobs Jamboree was quite interesting to say the least... I had already told you about the forecasts for a HUGE drop in job losses for July from 467,000 to 325,000... But the number, according to the BLS, was 247,000!!!!!!! Way to Go Corporate America! Geez Louise, I wish it were that full of seashells and balloons! This smells of yesterday's fish folks... OK, let me get this straight... The forecast was for 325,000 job losses, and an unemployment rate of 9.6% (up from 9.5% in June)... And the jobs lost were 247,000, a difference of 78,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%... So, the BLS is telling me, and you, that 78,000 jobs not being lost, was equal to .2% (9.6 to 9.4)? Come on! I didn't just fall off the turnip truck!...
  • It's All About The Stress Tests...

    In This Issue..

    * Tired of reacting to rumors!
    * Aussie dollar continues to rally...
    * More on China...
    * Bank of England keeps rates unchanged...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! We're stuck in a rainy pattern here in St. Louis, I just have to hope the rain stops long enough to get the day game at Busch in today!

    Well... The Stress Tests get their public showing today... The rumors continue to be something strange... Strange in that, one it's Bank of America (BOA) needing to raise $10 Billion, the next day it's $35 Billion, and then later in the same day, BOA doesn't need to raise any capital! Talk about wild swings of emotion! WOW!...
  • A Horrific Jobs Report!

    * 651K jobs lost in Feb... * Dec. and Jan Job losses revised up... * Talking Norway, Canada, Australia... * Brazil stealthlike for 3 months... ** A Horrific Jobs Report! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A wonderful weekend here in St. Louis, a taste of spring was in the air. I got to spend some time with some of my closest friends on Friday night, a good time was had by all! Well... Our Fantastico Friday was interrupted by that horrific Jobs Jamboree number that printed Friday morning... 651K jobs were lost in February, which let me remind you is a couple of days shorter than other months. So, it could have been worse! Hard to believe that could be the case, but it's true. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, from 7.6% in January. The jobless rate is the highest since 1983. The economy has now shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with almost half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone....
  • FOMC Minutes Point To Problems...

    * Questioning the Fed's moves... * Euros slow down... * Aussie hits 25-year high... * Oil hits $135!...