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  • Counting Flowers On The Wall...

    In This Issue..

    * A non-movement day in currencies...
    * Euro gets hit again by Greek debt levels...
    * Asia is bellwether for global growth...
    * Gold rallies!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I hear that the "rains" are coming today, and will be around until next Tuesday! We'll be water logged, eh? I want to thank everyone who sent along the 'welcome back' notes yesterday. I need to make something clear... I'm not at the office... Not yet, they won't let me... So, I'm writing from home, and I have to pat myself on the back because I didn't complain one iota about writing from home yesterday! HA!

    Talk about counting flowers on the wall, playing solitaire till dawn with a deck of 51, and all those other things that fall under the category of being bored, and dull... That was the day in currencies yesterday......
  • Back To the Greece Debacle...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies overnight...
    * Gold loses $10...
    * Retail Sales for December are negative!
    * Chinese games with the renminbi continue...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I said on the way to work, as I hit each stop light on green, that it was going to be a Fantastico Friday! I mean, why not? 1. it's a Friday, 2. it's a payday Friday, 3. it's the start of a 3-day Holiday weekend! Shoot Rudy, I thought to myself, as I drove to work, 'nothing can spoil this day'...

    But... Then I got to work, turned on the currency screens, and it hit me like a slap in the face! The euro has led the non-dollar currencies down VS the dollar overnight... After spending 3 days this week, hovering back and forth over and under the 1.45 handle, the euro finally succumbed to some selling......
  • Germany & France Post 3rd QTR Growth...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion fuels dollar rally yesterday...
    * Eurozone growth may stop the Risk Aversion...
    * Budget Deficit is a record $176.4 Billion!
    * Euro, Swiss, Aussie, Norway, all cheaper today!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's try to make this a Fantastico Friday as well! The Risk Aversion that was creeping into the currency markets yesterday really took hold in the U.S. trading session, which meant the dollar was being bought once more, along with Japanese yen...

    It just makes me laugh out loud, when I write that the 'safe haven currencies' during Risk Aversion trading are the dollar and yen... These two countries have debt up to their eyeballs, pay no interest on their deposits, and have a leadership deficiency... (ok, before every begins to think that I'm ripping the president again, I'm not... I'm talking about the Central Bank, and lawmakers of each country)...
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

    In This Issue..

    * Comments spook currency traders...
    * A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
    * Geithner as the "joker"?
    * China changes statement about the renminbi...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

    That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

    So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......
  • China Grows at +8.9%!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally is reversed overnight!
    * Pay Czar dreams...
    * Brazil may reverse capital inflow tax...
    * An Asian Union?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining outside, so... It must be a Thursday! Amazing how many Thursdays have seen rain this fall! The ground isn't the only thing that's getting watered down this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the euro traded well past 1.50 yesterday afternoon, and drug all the other non-dollar currencies higher as the day went on. But overnight, all that giddiness with seeing the euro over 1.50 for the first time since August of 2008 (and then it was on the way down, instead of this time on the way up!), has been watered down......
  • Catching Up With Richard Duncan...

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies give back very little...
    * The Unemployed are remaining unemployed...
    * FOMC puts away the board games today...
    * China invokes a 'Public Morals' defense...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the Fed Head put away the board games today, and make an announcement this afternoon... Yawn... Norway's Norges Bank will also make an announcement with theirs coming this morning. I still contend that the Norges Bank will keep rates unchanged and give a hint as to when their rate hike cycle will begin. If that were to happen as I think, then it would be very bullish for the krone......
  • A Rout On The Dollar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally strong!
    * China is upset with printing of dollars...
    * The UN talks of a new currency...
    * Unemployment rate rises to 9.7%

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long Holiday Weekend, that was quite good for yours truly! A great tailgate, a great Missouri Tigers victory, 3 of 4 for the Cardinals, a great end of summer bar-b-que at the Butler House, and a day to recharge the batteries... Really couldn't ask for much more... Yes, the weather could have cooperated a bit better, but, hey, that's nitpicking!

    Well... Last night I was checking the markets to see what was going on, since I had walked away from the desk on Friday afternoon... And much to my surprise, the currencies, led by the euro, seemed to be breaking out of their recent trading ranges. The euro was trading 1.4335, when I checked then... And when I turned on the currency screens here at the office this morning, the euro has stretched that move to the 1.4480 level! WOW! Looks to me as though the deficits that the dollar drags around are not looking to sharp to investors... But then, what took them so long to dump that fashion faux pas? Ahhh, grasshopper... As I've said many times before... The markets will do what they are supposed to do... Just not when... Which means, sometimes you have to wait... And wait... And think that they guy ranting each day in the Pfennig is barking up the wrong tree!...
  • A Lost Decade?

    In This Issue..

    * An Up and Down day for currencies...
    * Jobs Jamboree moves to Thursday today...
    * China to buy more Gold!
    * Sweden cuts rates!

    Good day... And a Thankful Thursday to you! I'm reminded that we all need to be thankful for the patriots that led this country to victory and thus our freedom. The freedom for me to write a letter like this, each day, that allows me to say what I want to say (well, with the governor of the legal beagles of course!). And since this weekend we will celebrate our Independence, I thought this to be a good time to have a Thankful Thursday!

    Patriots... You know, the ending story for those 56 Patriots that signed the Declaration of Independence is not a happy story... So, when we learn of their collective fates, we realize that freedom does not come free......
  • Desperately Seeking Yield...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * More on the BRIC's...
    * New Zealand's GDP contracts..
    * Bernanke gets grilled!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week... The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we'll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

    Well... What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed's FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again... Looks like they are "Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we've turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar....
  • The Currency Rally Continues!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro trades past 1.42...
    * Geithner make a promise to China...
    * Central Bank meetings this week...
    * Canada's Fin Min, speaks...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And welcome to June... Tradition in the Pfennig means a quick rendition of: June is bustin' out all over... All over the meadow and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes... And the rompin' river pushes... Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was a just an old Rock-n-roller!

    Well, on Friday I left you with the story of a currency rally for the ages... And it didn't let up there! Although the rest of the day on Friday the bias was to sell dollars, the real chunk of the dollar wasn't taken until last night in Asia... Here's the deal folks, and this won't be the first time you've heard this from me either!...
  • It's All About The Stress Tests...

    In This Issue..

    * Tired of reacting to rumors!
    * Aussie dollar continues to rally...
    * More on China...
    * Bank of England keeps rates unchanged...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! We're stuck in a rainy pattern here in St. Louis, I just have to hope the rain stops long enough to get the day game at Busch in today!

    Well... The Stress Tests get their public showing today... The rumors continue to be something strange... Strange in that, one it's Bank of America (BOA) needing to raise $10 Billion, the next day it's $35 Billion, and then later in the same day, BOA doesn't need to raise any capital! Talk about wild swings of emotion! WOW!...
  • The Rot On The Vine Goes Deeper...

    In This Issue..

    * The 31st bank is closed in 2009
    * China is showing signs of improvement...
    * The so-called 'decoupling' taking place?
    * Jobs Jamboree ends the week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I'm Back! Once again, the traveling troubadour returns to the saddle... I'm here for two weeks, then gone again for the Las Vegas Money Show, then I get a nice reprieve in June before heading to Vancouver in July. There's a day game at Busch this Thursday, and I've already been invited to go, so I'm already getting in the frame of mind for that!

    OK... Chris did a great job bringing you the Pfennig each day last week... I was still writing each day, giving daily updates to the FXU people. Chris will be traveling with me to "lost wages" , I mean, Las Vegas, so I'll be writing from the road, which long time readers know I just absolutely love!... NOT!...
  • Dollar Shows Additional Strength...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro at one-month low... * Trichet talks rate cuts... * Riksbank & Bank of Canada this week... * The Mogambo on a Monday!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Today is a special day, in that it is the Big Boss Frank Trotter's birthday! Happy Birthday Boss! Actually Frank is more of a very good, long time friend, mentor, and then boss. We've worked together for a very long time... I tell people at shows that Frank and I do together, that we've been working together for so long... The Dead Sea wasn't even sick when we began working together! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    OK... A bad day a the office for the euro and other currencies on Friday, and then last night in the overnight markets... European Central Bank (ECB) President, Trichet, once again deep-sixed the euro with talk of further rate cuts. He did attempt to water down the message by saying that "any rate cuts would be measured 25 BPS cuts" Memo to Trichet... It doesn't matter what the size of the debasing is, as long as you are going to debase your currency, the markets will make you pay for it!...
  • The waiting game...

    In This Issue..

    * Waiting on G20 and the ECB...
    * US home prices plunge...
    * What will come from G20...
    * ECB to cut rates, but no quantitative easing...

    Good day... The markets will play a waiting game today, and I expect the currencies to trade in a pretty flat range. The focus will be on the G20 which starts tomorrow, and the ECB announcement which will also be released tomorrow. So today I will share my views on both of these topics, but first I will report on what occurred yesterday and overnight in the currency markets.

    The dollar climbed yesterday morning as data released showed US home prices plunged at a record pace and consumer confidence continues to bottom. US home prices fell nearly 19% in January according to the S&P Case Shiller index. This was even worse than economists had predicted, and December's numbers were revised down....
  • A change in the Trading Theme?

    * A change in the Trading Theme? * Gold rebounds Big time! * ECB cuts 50 BPS, as expected... * Lots of lessons today... ** Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It supposed to be 70 degrees here today, so in my book that makes it a Fantastico Friday! It's also a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and while this report is probably not going to be anything good, it will be Fantastico BAD! The experts have forecast a job loss in February to be 650K!!!!!! Six Hundred and Fifty Thousand did I say? Yes, sir, may I have another, sir? Well, shiver me timbers, this is just downright awful! And if it prints this bad, it will be the most jobs lost in a month since 1949! This is horrific, just plain horrific folks... And in my opinion, will NOT signal the bottom of the barrel for labor just yet... This thing has momentum and I don't think you'd want to step in front of this run-away bus!...