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  • Details of Greek aid package boosts the euro...

    In This Issue..

    * Details of Greek aid package boosts the euro...
    * Officially the US recession is still not over...
    * Commodity currencies take a breather...
    * Polish zloty holds steady after tragedy...

    Good day, and welcome to another week. It is a holiday here in St. Louis, as it is the home opener for Cardinal nation. Looks like the fans will have an absolutely perfect day for the celebration, with sunny skies and temps in the upper 70's. Opening day truly is a local holiday, and a big number of workers will be calling in sick in order to go downtown to enjoy the festivities. Let's hope the Cardinals can bring the home crowd a winner!

    The EU gave the euro a big boost over the weekend as they announced the details of a $61 billion aid package for Greece. The announcement of the details calmed the markets and sent the euro shooting up close to $1.37 for the first time since mid March. The plan was hammered out back on March 25th, but details of how the aid package would be structured were not revealed, causing many to question it. Now that the details have been revealed, traders reversed some of their short positions and the euro has recovered....
  • A down day for the dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs disappoint...
    * Factory orders hold up...
    * Franc rises to record against euro...
    * Another feather in the hat for Canada...

    Good day and a Terrific Thursday to you...Its always nice to flip the calendar over to April each year, because in my book at least, this is the unofficial start of spring. We were greeted with a picture perfect day yesterday and today should be even better here in St. Louis. There's just a lot to be said about walking outside without a coat, seeing everything turning green, and hearing the birds chirp. Both Chuck and Chris and out today so I have the honor of bringing you today's Pfennig. Since I don't have any jokes to share with you on this April Fools Day, I'll get right to the meat and potatoes (which is probably a good thing since my joke telling abilities aren't exactly at par.)

    ...
  • Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...
    * Decision on Norwegian interest rates...
    * Canadian dollar rises...
    * Kiwi to outpace Australian dollar...

    Good day, the dollar gained ground across the board as the news hit that the IMF will be brought in to help rescue Greece. The dollar was also helped by data which showed existing housing sales fell by less than expected in February. We will get additional news on the status of the US economy today, with the release of durable goods and new home sales numbers for February. We will get a rate decision by the Norwegian central bank today, which could stoke calls for higher rates here in the US. But the big news overnight is concerning the euro (again!).

    The euro sold off by a full percentage point vs. the US$ after both Germany and France are reported to have agreed to have the IMF involved in aid to Greece. This is an about face for European leaders who announced last week that they had agreed on a European solution to the Greek crisis. But Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel threw a spanner in the works a week ago when she said Germany would not participate in giving Greece financial aid. This threw the euro into crisis mode again, as the 'agreement' reached early last week never materialized....
  • Merkel throws Greece under the bus...

    In This Issue..

    * Merkel throws Greece under the bus...
    * Canadian dollar moves higher...
    * China policy causes carry reversal...
    * Jobs data to move the markets...

    Good day... And good morning to all of you. I arrived in the 'sunshine' state only to find rain and cold. It is actually a bit colder here than back home in St. Louis, but the trip down went well, I got to do my run on the beach, and I had a great dinner with a large group of EverBankers last night; so I'm not going to let the weather get me down.

    The German's broke rank with the rest of the EU and suggested Greece should turn to the IMF for support. The euro had rallied over the past couple of days after it seemed the EU finance ministers had agreed on a loan facility to back the Greek government. But Germany's Angela Merkel threw a cat among the pigeons today when she said Greece should not look to the EU but should turn to the IMF if it needs aid. So traders immediately started selling the euro again as the black cloud of a possible Greek default fell hung back over the market....
  • Greek debt is the euro's Sword of Damocles....

    In This Issue..

    * Greek debt crisis continues to hang over the euro...
    * Moody's says the UK and US debt ratings are secure, for now...
    * Swiss National Bank lets the franc appreciate...
    * Lots of data on tap in the US this week...

    Good day, and welcome to another week. The alarm clock seemed to go off an hour early this morning, as my body hasn't yet adjusted to daylight savings. I have heard several reasons for the semi annual adjustment of our clocks, but still don't buy into it. I think everyone should just agree to leave the clocks alone and I for one vote to leave them where they are right now, giving us an extra bit of sunlight in the evenings. We didn't see much sun here in St. Louis this weekend, as a soft spring rain has been coming down for the past 3 days....
  • Bailout Package For Greece Put On Hold...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally fades on latest Greek development...
    * Brazilian real rallies...
    * Canadian loonie ratchets higher...
    * Another Geithner smoking gun?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because... I say so! Every day's a new day... And for someone like me that had two strikes called on me before I knew the pitch was even coming... Every day is special!

    I want to thank every one that sent along a note of good wishes, and advice to tell the people that decide that email is a good way to ruin someone's day, good riddance... I'll have more on this in the Big Finish...

    But what a day the currencies had yesterday! The euro gained ground all the way back to 1.3730 (but saw some profit taking at the end of the day) and all the other currencies followed in step... Now... There's two ways to look at this... Either the euro is like a star that's getting ready to burn out... (it always shines brightest before it burns out), or... It's like a star that had been covered up by another planet, and is coming back into view!...
  • RBA Hikes Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... Well... I'm back in the saddle! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It didn't take long for me to get the emails started telling me how wrong I am again... WOW! Of course, I wonder where these people have been the last 9 years, as when 9 years ago I was the first writer to issue a white paper calling for the long term down trend for the dollar... Or, in 2002, when everyone was writing off the euro, I wrote the white paper, 'The Year of The euro'... Or in, 2005, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me... Or, in 2008, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me...

    Is this time different? I doubt it... Lose value for 6 more months? In my opinion yes... But then returning to the underlying weak dollar trend. Look folks, if you really think that by sending me emails telling me I'm wrong, and I'm stupid, and everything else, that I'm going to change my mind on this... Then you might as well stop! Or... Start writing that great American, NOT! George Soros, and tell him how great he is......
  • The Mini-Rally For Currencies Continues...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro takes baby steps higher...
    * Canadian Retail Sales disappoint...
    * Oil price plunge hurts petrol currencies...
    * Brazilian real drop on Wealth Fund selling...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... We made it through the weekend, here at the Butler house, just Alex and me. Had some visitors (friends) stop by Friday night, but after that, it was just us two. Good games yesterday, eh? I had all the snacks out on the table, and thought the older kids would stop by to watch games with us, but, that was a wasted effort on my part, as they did not, and then I had to clean all that up!

    Well... On Friday, the currencies kept with their mini-rebound VS the dollar, for the most part, as the Big Dog, euro crept higher and higher, but in tiny, baby steps for sure! It's as if traders are wanting to take the euro higher, and sell the dollar, but they just aren't sure, right now...

    Stocks got hammered on Friday in reaction to the President's proposed ban on proprietary trading in Banks... You know, it occurred to me that the Gov't does this, the media does this, and now I've gotten too lazy and do it... And that's to say 'Banks'... What they mean here are the investment Banks, like the Goldmans and the Morgan Stanleys... And yes it does include 'real' banks, but for the most part they are the ones that do more on the investment side than they do on the deposit side......
  • Are Fundamentals Creeping Back To The Currencies?

    In This Issue..

    * A$, C$ and Gold maintain gains...
    * euros and reals get sold...
    * What will China do?
    * The slowest buffalo theory...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! January 6th... It's the Epiphany, or... The 12th day of Christmas! With it being the Epiphany, I wonder what will be revealed to us today regarding new deficit spending, or more corrupt government data...

    OK, that was a cheap shot, but, hey! Don't they deserve it? Always doing a hedonic adjustment here, there, and everywhere to make us 'feel good'... Oh well, I'll leave that there and go on to other things...

    This should be short-n-sweet this morning, as I overslept, something that I rarely do... Of course, I'm still here a good hour plus before anyone else, so I've got that going for me today!...
  • Green Light, Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC minutes make it a Risk On Day!
    * Gold hits $1,180!
    * Germany's ZEW is bang on with their forecast!
    * Russia to buy loonies?

    It's a Risk On Day, full on, no 'kind of' today! Or at least that's how it looks as I begin to write this morning... The Big Dog, euro, is back over 1.50 this morning, and Gold is trading at $1,177! What brought about this full on Risk On day?

    Well... It was the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes... And, when I read what the Fed Heads had to say, I had one song in my mind... Hey! You! Get off of my cloud! Because that's where their collective heads are with these minutes, folks... The Fed Heads viewed the U.S. economy on firmer footing and expects the growth to continue in the 4th QTR... Yeah, right, and I've got some swamp land I'd like to sell you! Snake Oil salesmen these guys!

    Any way... The Fed Heads also said that the dollar's depreciation had been 'orderly'... With no mention of doing anything to stop the depreciation! Green light, Green light, Green light... How many of these Green lights do traders and you need to realize that the Fed isn't going to stop the dollar's decline? And How about the Treasury? Oh! That's right, they're too busy shoving negative yields down people's throats! OK, I'm getting all ticked off, and I really don't feel like doing that today, so I'm going to talk about something else, fast!...
  • We Won't Get Fooled Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Bernanke digs out some old words...
    * Risk on, Risk off...
    * Brazil to have a different meeting outcome?
    * Winter Olympics are in Canada...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! What a ride on Mr. Toad (Bernanke's) Wild Ride yesterday for the currencies! Gold? Well, at one point in the day, Gold had shot up $24 on the day! It topped out at $1,142... The shiny metal then gave some back on profit taking, but Whew! Gold holders have got to love it! Those that keep waiting for a pull-back... Well, they might be still waiting when the cows come home...

    Yesterday, we had a couple of Fed Heads talking, but the Big Kahuna, stood out, and moved the markets with his statements... Here's the skinny......
  • German Business Confidence Slides...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * $81 Billion in Treasury auctions this week!
    * Fitch fans the flames of a fire in the U.K....
    * Aussie Business Confidence rises...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I didn't start out this Tuesday on the right foot, and now I'm really running late! Oh well...

    The non-dollar currencies didn't move much yesterday, the euro bumped up and down against the 1.50 figure, while the A$ did the same against 93-cents, and Swiss against parity... So the currencies are trading in the same clothes they went to bed in last night!

    The Big Dog, euro, did attempt to move stronger into the 1.50 level, but that move was thwarted by a poor reading of German Investor Confidence this morning. German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank ZEW, reported that their index had fallen to 51.1 this month VS the 56 in October. Most of those Germans surveyed said that they expect the economic recovery to be slow once the Gov't removes the stimulus in the economy. So... Previous euphoria is being replaced by realism... But that's OK... Better to have a reality grip on things than to go around thinking that everything is seashells and balloons......
  • RBA's Stevens Turns On The Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar bounces back a bit...
    * Euro retreats from highs...
    * Is the economic recovery for real?
    * Ignored data...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I believe it will be a Fantastico Friday as well, because when I go in my car this morning to come to work, the radio was playing, 'It's a Beautiful Morning'... It had to be a sign, right? I certainly hope so any way!

    Well, I'm back! I have to say that I've never been to the mountains of North Georgia before, and they are beautiful... Well, most of the parts of this great country are, when I come to think of it! Well, it was nice to walk in the door yesterday and sit down, close my eyes, and get work off my brain!...
  • Retail Sales Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Retail Sales!
    * China likes investments in Canada...
    * Big Ben the 'inflation fighter'...
    * Gold climbs to $1,018!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Good news for me this morning, the pain in my left knee has subsided... Now, If I could just get that swelling to go down, I'd be in tall cotton! This has been quite the ordeal on the old Pfennig writer, and one that I will be glad to put in the rear view mirror!

    Well... When I turned on the currency screens this morning, the euro was trading with a 1.47 handle! WOW! It just skipped to my Lou right through the 1.46 handle, eh? It began yesterday afternoon, the dollar was getting sold on the news of a strong Retail Sales figure, more on that in a minute, and the euro was edging up the 1.46 ladder... The move to get it past 1.47 came in the overnight markets... Now, having gotten you all lathered up about 1.47, I have to say that since I turned on the currency screens, the euro has lost ground back to 1.4688, but still... That's quite an impressive move from yesterday morning, eh?

    ...
  • More Baby Steps For A German Economic Recovery...

    In This Issue..

    * German unemployment falls!
    * RBA disappoints the markets...
    * China to buy Canadian company...
    * ISM to print positive?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And Welcome to September! Well... Here's a thought to get our engines started this morning... Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning ( www.dailyreckoning.com )had this to add to my ranting about our National Debt going to over $20 Trillion in the next 10 years, due to deficit spending...

    'The Obama administration, for example, expects to run $9 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years - and that number is based on a recovery! Imagine what will happen if the economy doesn't recover?'

    ...