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  • The Currency Rally Continues!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro trades past 1.42...
    * Geithner make a promise to China...
    * Central Bank meetings this week...
    * Canada's Fin Min, speaks...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And welcome to June... Tradition in the Pfennig means a quick rendition of: June is bustin' out all over... All over the meadow and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes... And the rompin' river pushes... Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was a just an old Rock-n-roller!

    Well, on Friday I left you with the story of a currency rally for the ages... And it didn't let up there! Although the rest of the day on Friday the bias was to sell dollars, the real chunk of the dollar wasn't taken until last night in Asia... Here's the deal folks, and this won't be the first time you've heard this from me either!...
  • A Horrific Jobs Report!

    * 651K jobs lost in Feb... * Dec. and Jan Job losses revised up... * Talking Norway, Canada, Australia... * Brazil stealthlike for 3 months... ** A Horrific Jobs Report! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A wonderful weekend here in St. Louis, a taste of spring was in the air. I got to spend some time with some of my closest friends on Friday night, a good time was had by all! Well... Our Fantastico Friday was interrupted by that horrific Jobs Jamboree number that printed Friday morning... 651K jobs were lost in February, which let me remind you is a couple of days shorter than other months. So, it could have been worse! Hard to believe that could be the case, but it's true. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, from 7.6% in January. The jobless rate is the highest since 1983. The economy has now shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with almost half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone....
  • Wild Swings!

    * Euro gains, then loses, then gains... * Inflation and Commodities... * The euro turns 10! * Risk Aversion remains but is waning... ** Wild Swings! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it happened way too late for yours truly to witness it, but my beloved Missouri Tigers rallied and won the Alamo Bowl in overtime. Go Tigers! Hopefully they can fix the defense before next fall! OK... Remember those Wild Swings I talked about yesterday? The Wild Swings that could be a result of thin volumes in this the second week of Christmas. Well... We witnessed them in earnest yesterday! As I signed off yesterday, I told you that the euro had rallied 2 whole figures to 1.43 and change. Well, that rally dissipated throughout the morning, and by late in the day the single unit was 1.39 and change... WOW! Now that's a Wild Swing! You can point to profit taking as the reason for the move, and with the volumes thinned out by Holiday trading, one profit taking sell begot another, and before you knew it, the euro was looking at a loss on the day....
  • The Trading Theme Remains In Place...

    * Heeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk... * Carry Trade Depth... * RBA intervenes... * Oil weighs on the loonie... ** The Trading Theme Remains In Place... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It's been a long time, now I'm coming back home, I've been away now, oh how, I've been alone... Two weeks gone by the wayside! This Friday is Halloween! WOW! Where did the month go? Airports, hotels, and taxi cabs, that's where! But, I did it... The Currency Tour is finished... Time well spent I might add, but very taxing on me... Of course, my beautiful bride tells me if I were in better shape, it wouldn't be so taxing! Well... As I look at the currency screens this morning, I see that nothing has changed... The Trading theme I left you with is still in place, as the more deeper, darker, dangerous outlook for the U.S. becomes, the more the dollar gets bought... Things look better, and the dollar will get sold... The dollar has become the new Japanese yen!...
  • Who Owes Who?

    * Trading theme pushes yen higher... * Settlement day for Lehman CDO's... * Oil price fall hurts loonies... * Gold climbs back above $900... ** Who Owes Who? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It certainly doesn't look as though it will be a Fantastico Friday in stocks, as yesterday was a bloodletting, and overnight the Japanese stock market sold off 11%, and Europe is down about 9% at this point. UGH! This is getting quite ugly... But remember what I've been saying this week about the currency trading theme... When things look bleak, the dollar goes up... And when it looks as though all the stimulus might work, the dollar sells off... This has been quite evident in Japanese yen overnight, as stocks sold off 11%, the currency rallied to a 98 handle from 101 yesterday... And... Then in dollar trading, other than yen, the dollar is stronger this morning, pushing the euro back to the 1.35 handle. The high yielders, which enjoyed a day in the sun yesterday before U.S. stocks took a turn on the slippery slope, got whacked hard overnight! UGH!...
  • Some Healing...

    * largest one-day move up in the euro! * largest one-day move up in Oil! * Gold and Silver rebound! * Renminbi finally moves! ** Some Healing... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I heard from one of my two sisters that live in the Houston area yesterday. They rode out the Hurricane together, have some damage to her house, and is still without electricity. I can't imagine what that's all like. But they are both safe at that's what's important at this point. Well... The euro had it's largest one-day move upward VS the dollar since its inception in 1999, yesterday... We've seen some profit taking in the overnight markets, but just for good measure... I think it appropriate to show that the euro reached 1.48 yesterday... That was a 3.5 euro move, and after falling to a low of 1.3869 on 9/12 (before bouncing big that day), the euro has now recovered about 7%... I would call that "some healing"......
  • Falling In And Out Of Love...

    * Euro sinks to 1-year low... * RBNZ cuts rates 25 BPS... * Carry Trades continue to unwind... * Fannie and Freddie cause problems for banks... ** Falling In And Out Of Love... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Today we mark 7 years since the "monsters" attacked our great nation and thousands of lives were lost needlessly. My blood still boils at the thought of what happened on Sept 11, 2001, and the thoughts of the twin towers coming down still flashes in my mind. 7 years ago today, we witnessed the horrific scenes from terrorists in our country. I recall trying to come up with words the next day, and just couldn't, so I stuck to currencies, in attempt to keep things as normal as they could be. I hope everyone flies their flag today in remembrance of this day 7 years ago. OK... We're seeing a complete meltdown in the currencies this morning, folks.. The euro has fallen to the low 1.39 handle, and all is looking quite bleak for the single unit right now. Our metals trader, Kristin, sent me this note that she came across regarding the euro......
  • Leading Indicators Fall!

    * Euro rebounds! * Forecasting a severe recession... * Commodities rebound! * Canadian inflation problems... ** Leading Indicators Fall! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday did indeed turn into a Tub Thumpin' Thursday for the euro, so let's hope today ends up being a Fantastico Friday! Well... The game of "your economy is worse than mine" backfired on the dollar bulls yesterday, as the Leading Indicators printed an awful number. I said yesterday that it was too bad that the markets normally ignored this data... But they didn't yesterday, as the number was so bad, they couldn't ignore it... Sort of like that spoiled rotten bratty kid throwing themselves to the floor of the grocery store, and throwing a temper tantrum because you said they couldn't have a candy bar! If you're next in line to check out at the grocery store, and you want to ignore the child, but you just can't because it's so obnoxious! Well, that's how it was with Leading Indicators yesterday... Here's the skinny......
  • What's Up With The Loonie?

    * Euro trading pattern... * Sterling backs off... * Data cupboard gets restocked... * Rupees disappoint... **What's Up With The Loonie? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hit all my traffic lights on green this morning, so it's going to be a "good day"! Funny how little things like that put a smile on my face... OK... Another day of watching the euro rise up to 1.5815 and then see it get sold back below the 1.58 figure when the NY boys arrive at their desks. The pattern for the first two days this week has seen that selling in the morning, and then a slow rise in the afternoon, and then back over 1.58 in the overnight markets. That's where we are again this morning......
  • Bank of Canada Makes a Larger Than Expected Cut...

    * Bank of Canada cuts 50 bp... * Trichet supports strong dollar policy... * Swiss economy surprisingly strong.. * Aussie dollar eases... ...