August 2009 - Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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  • Making The Fed Reserve Accountable!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies sold overnight
    * But rebound in early morning trading...
    * China throws cold water on stock values...
    * German exports rival the Big Kahuna!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I returned home from San Francisco last night, and am back in the saddle today! Not the way I like to travel, where I get a day when returning home to recharge the batteries, but it is what it is... I did an interview with MarketWatch yesterday morning, talking about... Well, what else? The deficits, and diversification! My presentations in S.F. were well attended... On Saturday, my power point froze up, but I carried on in spite of the technical difficulties!

    You know... I really, heard a lot of people talking about the rumor / conspiracy story that there will be a bank holiday at the end of the month (this weekend) and the Gov't will announce major changes to the currency... Now, before anyone begins to believe that I am on board with that rumor / conspiracy story, STOP! I am NOT! I've read all the theories, and I've heard all the information regarding this, but just do not understand why this would be done... So... I just wanted to throw it out there, and let you all know where I stand on this......
  • German Business Confidence Continues to Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Tuesday
    * But see profit taking later in the day...
    * Looking for yield?
    * China expected to get back to 10% growth!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! When I signed off yesterday morning, I told you that I was watching a mini-rally in the currencies. Well, that mini-rally turned into a real rally as the morning went along. Especially, after the risk assets got a boost from the Consumer Confidence revival. Yes, Brother Love's traveling salvation show revival, a.k.a. Consumer Confidence was much stronger than forecast, and the risk assets took off!

    By mid-afternoon, the euro was pushing 1.4350, and all the 'little dogs' were following along with their own version of a rally VS the dollar. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, and profit taking set in... Oh brother! Can't these guys wait until there is really a BIG move before they take profits? Oh well, I know, you're saying, 'But Chuck, don't you always say that it's not a profit until you take it?' Yes, that's correct... But the rest of us just want to have a diversifying asset in our investment portfolio, and are not interested in 1/2 euro moves to take a 'profit'!

    ...
  • The Boy Who Cried Wolf? NOT!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Wednesday
    * But see selling the rest of the day.
    * German Consumer Confidence surprises...
    * GDP to be revised downward?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I get knocked down, but I get up again, you're never gonna keep me down... Yes, a little Tub Thumpin' this morning... I'm all geeked up because I'm sneaking out to go watch Chris Carpenter pitch for the Cardinals this afternoon! A day game... YAHOO!

    OK... Enough of that! Well, another day where the currencies bumped higher early morning, but then were sold the rest of the day. I know the currency guys (and gals) are all wonder where do they go from here... Which is the way that's clear? Well... Short term currency forecasts are proven to be wrong, most of the time... Long term? Well, that can't be argued... The deficit spending, the money creation, and the monetizing of debt will all come back to haunt the dollar... And as Aaron said yesterday, "we've only just begun"... (he was telling a joke), it holds true for the U.S. deficit spending picture......
  • A Currency Rally Takes Shape...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally overnight...
    * A$'s rally for 7th consecutive month!
    * Will the ECB be vindicated?
    * Sweden tries negative deposit rates...

    Good day... And a happy Friday to one and all! So, yesterday didn't turn out the way I thought it would go, but that's OK... I think my body is trying to tell me something, as I overslept again this morning! I'm heading out the door this morning to go 'fishing'... Should be a ton of fun, with neighbor friends this weekend...

    Well, front and center this morning, we are smack dab in the middle of a currency rally VS the dollar. It has all the makings of such, as the Japanese yen is getting sold, along with the green/peachback. The improved economic data this week, finally caught up with the dollar, as risk assets are back on the table....
  • Renminbi To Become An International Currency?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies give back ground overnight...
    * Don't look too closely at U.S. data...
    * India posts strong GDP...
    * Lots O'-data this week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Wonderful Weekend was enjoyed by your Pfennig writer, with good friends, and Chamber of Commerce weather, on a beautiful lake! It's back to work today though. I don't understand why I didn't plan on taking today and staying an additional day at that beautiful lake! Oh well... Time to go to work!

    When I signed off on Friday morning, the currencies were enjoying a very nice rally, which remained in place the rest of the day. The Consumer Income and Spending data was very much as I describe it would be, and so there was no surprise for the markets to deal with. You may recall, that I told you that Spending would be greater than Income, as the 'Cars for Clunkers' probably had something to do with the Spending be so much stronger than the Income piece......